Summary of the Book Review – How Big Things Get Done

Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner show what distinguishes the triumphs from the failures with the book How Big Things Get Done – The Surprising Factors Behind Every Successful Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration. Flyvbjerg identifies the errors in judgment and decision-making that lead projects to fail and the research-based principles that will make you succeed with your projects.

In nine chapters, we get a good idea of why projects fail or are successful.
In the first chapter we see, based on an extensive study of 16,000 projects, the iron law of project management – Over budget, over time, under benefits, over and over again: 47.90% on budget (or better), 8.50% on budget and on time (or better), 0.50% on budget and on time and benefits (or better). Several case studies show that “think fast, act slow” will not result in success. Why start projects so prematurely? 

One reason is the rush to commit. Purposes and goals are not carefully considered. Alternatives are not explored. Difficulties and risks are not investigated. Solutions are not found. Instead, shallow analysis is followed by a quick lock-in to a decision (commitment fallacy). Another reason is unchecked optimism leading to unrealistic forecasts (planning fallacy, Hofstadter’s law, poorly defined goals, better options ignored, problems not spotted and dealt with, and no contingencies to counteract the inevitable surprises. Or strategic misrepresentation. A budget that was made because it could be accepted politically. If people knew the real cost from the start, nothing would ever be approved, and use the “start digging in the hole” strategy and make progress so no one would stop it (e.g., the Sydney Opera House). And when the project is in progress, they keep going because they have already spent so much (sunk cost fallacy or Concorde fallacy).

“Think fast, act slow” answers the previous part, but it is not enough. Why are you doing the project, and what is your goal? In other words, “think from right to left.”

If we know the goal, how are we going to achieve it? What’s the plan? A good plan is one that meticulously applies experimentation or experience. A great plan rigorously applies both (e.g. the Guggenheim Bilbao). Pixar movies usually go through the cycle from script to audience feedback eight times. This is an extremely detailed and rigorously tested proof of concept; the next, ninth step is real development. This iterative process corrects the “illusion of explanatory depth.” Whatever can be done in planning should be, and planning should be slow and rigorously iterative, based on experience. Compare Eric Ries’ MVP.

Every Olympic Games (since 1960) has gone over budget. The average overrun is 157%. “New” or “unique” is treated as a selling point, not something to avoid. This is a big mistake. It’s the main reason that projects underperform. Planners should prefer highly experienced technology (frozen experience). Olympics are forever planned and delivered by beginners (Eternal beginners’ syndrome). Besides the “frozen experience” to get projects right, people’s lived experience (unfrozen) is as important. In planning and delivery, there is no better asset for a big project than an experienced leader with an experienced team using more than only explicit knowledge (e.g. the Empire State Building project).

Once we frame the problem as one of time and money overruns, it may never occur to us to consider that the real source of the problem is not the overruns at all; it is an underestimation. To create a successful project estimate, you must get the anchor right. To produce a reliable forecast, you need the outside view. Don’t assume your project is unique. You have to look at a project as part of a class of projects, as “one of those.” This is what the author called “reference-class forecasting (RCF)”. Reference-class forecasting is better for biases. It’s better on unknown unknowns. If you face a fat-tail distribution, the tail outcomes – the “black swans” – cover about 20% of the distribution. You must do risk mitigation or “black swan management.”

You can add reference-class forecasting and risk management to your toolbox, along with experience, Pixar planning, and thinking from right to left, as essential tools for thinking slowly in planning before acting fast in delivery.

Some say planning ruins projects. Just get going! Trust your ingenuity! It’s a wonderful sentiment backed by superb stories like Electric Lady (recording studio Jimi Hendrix) and Sydney Opera House. But if you look at the data, we only remember the success stories; we forget the ones, and those are the majority, that failed.

To take the final, critical step, you need a capable, determined delivery team—a single, determined organism—to act fast and deliver on time. A team proud to work on the project, where psychological safety is the norm. Where the spirit is the same, from the suits to the hard hats. Where onsite management and workers work together. E.g., the Hoover Dam or the Heathrow Terminal 5 (T5).

Five project types are not fat-tailed. That means they may come in somewhat late or over budget, but it’s very unlikely that they will go disastrously wrong (black swan outcomes, 400 percent or worse over budget). These fortunate ones are solar power, wind power, fossil thermal power, electricity transmission, and roads. The most extreme fat-tailed project types are nuclear storage, Olympics, nuclear power, IT, hydroelectric dams, and airports.

In the final chapter, the author discusses why these project types are exceptional. What makes them a safer bet than the rest, and why are wind and solar power the most reliable projects to be delivered successfully? 

Modularity delivers faster, cheaper, and better, making it valuable for all project types and sizes. The core of modularity is repetition. Put down one Lego block. Snap on another. And another. Repeat, repeat, repeat. Click, click, click. Repetition enables experimentation. If something works, you keep it in the plan. If it doesn’t, you “fail fast” and adjust the plan. Repetition also generates experience, improving your performance (positive learning curve). When you can build modules and deliver them to the site, the building isn’t constructed; it’s assembled, like Lego. Modularity radically reduces risk. Modular projects are less likely to become fat-tailed disasters (e.g., small modular reactors (SMRs) for nuclear plants).

Conclusion. This book offers a crucial guide for enhancing the success of mega projects, drawing on extensive research by Bent Flyvbjerg, a leading expert on mega projects from the University of Oxford. It addresses the high failure rates of projects worldwide, advocating for significant changes in project management approaches. Highlighting the importance of reference-class forecasting (coined by Bent Flyvbjerg), risk management, and a modular approach, the book integrates innovative strategies like Pixar planning and thinking from right to left. A clear, logical presentation and many real-life case studies make complex theories accessible and applicable. Despite its minimal use of graphs and tables, the book effectively communicates key concepts, such as fat-tail distribution in project overruns. It is an essential tool for anyone involved in mega-project management. I can highly recommend this book.

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